U.S. Crude-Oil Stockpiles Likely Declined in DOE Data, Analysts Say — Update

The average of estimates from 10 analysts and traders showed U.S. commercial oil stockpiles likely decreased by 1.6 million barrels for the week ended June 30. Nine analysts forecast a decline and just one analyst predicted an increase. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3.4 million barrels to an increase of 2.2 million barrels.

The forecasts for a decrease come despite a preliminary Energy Department report indicating the government sold 1.4 million barrels of crude last week from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the commercial side. That would bring those emergency crude supplies down to a nearly 40-year low of 347.2 million barrels.

The closely watched inventory data from the Energy Information Administration are scheduled for release at 11 a.m. ET Thursday, a day later than normal due to Tuesday’s Independence Day holiday.

Gasoline inventories are expected to fall by 900,000 barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decrease of 3.2 million barrels to an increase of 1.6 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which are mostly diesel fuel, are expected to rise by 300,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 3.1 million barrels.

Refinery use likely was unchanged from the previous week at 92.2%. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.7 percentage point to an increase of 1 percentage point. Two analysts didn’t make a forecast.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Wednesday that its own data for the week showed a 4.4 million-barrel decrease in crude supplies, a 1.6 million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks and a 604,000-barrel increase in diesel inventories, according to a source.

Refinery Crude Gasoline Distillates Use Again Capital -1.9 -2.6 -1.1 -0.7 Commodity Research Group -0.7 1.3 -0.4 0.5 Confluence Investment Management -3 -1 0.5 1 DTN -0.5 -1.2 0.5 -0.3 Excel Futures -3.4 1.6 0.8 0.5 Spartan Capital Securities -1.8 -1.1 3.1 n/f Mizuho -2 1 1 -0.5 Price Futures Group -2 -2 -2 unch Ritterbusch and Associates 2.2 -2.0 0.5 -0.2 Tradition Energy -3.2 -3.2 0.3 n/f AVERAGE -1.6 -0.9 0.3 unch

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

Write to Dan Molinski at [email protected]