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““Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out. This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.””
That was the message from a tweet sent Saturday from the U.K. Ministry of Defence in an update over the military confrontation between Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed punishment for those involved and to protect the country as Prigozhin and his troops marched across Ukraine’s border to take control of military headquarters in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don early Saturday.
The crisis began after Prigozhin on Friday called for an armed rebellion against the Kremlin, vowing to punish Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu who he accused of ordering an attack on Wagner’s field camps fighting on behalf of Russia in Ukraine. The Kremlin almost immediately opened a criminal probe into Prigozhin.
See: Putin vows to crush uprising as Wagner group appears to control military headquarters in Russian city
The U.K. Ministry of Defence (MOD) provides daily updates on the Ukraine war. In an update on its Twitter account, the MOD said the Wagner Group had crossed into “at least two locations” and was “almost certainly” occupying key security sites.
“Further Wagner units are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast, almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow. With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner.
“Things are moving fast. It’s difficult to establish with any certainty what’s actually going on in many of the places. Lots of conflicting information, rumours, and confusion out there,” said Ben Hodges, retired U.S. Army officer who served as commanding general for the United States Army Europe, in a comment provided to the European Resilience Resistance Center.
Hodges has been Senior Advisor to Human Rights First since June 2022 and also serves as NATO Senior Mentor for Logistics.
“Putin’s speech this morning directing the Army and the State’s security services to destroy the Wagner PMC, and Wagner PMC’s response, raises this to a much higher level of potential violence, perhaps even to a civil war. It remains to be seen if the Army will actually follow those orders,” said Hodges.
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